The outlook for the UK IPO market is currently the most constructive we have seen for several years. This follows H2 ’25 which saw £2.0bn of UK IPO issuance, the biggest half we have seen by some way since H2 ’21. Most of those deals have performed well and have put a positive platform in place for 2026. Importantly, we also saw a few £1bn+ market cap companies list on the LSE, something that has been missing in recent years, along with sponsor IPOs. It’s not all been plain-sailing – discounts have been attractive, some aftermarket performance mixed and deal sizes measured, but the direction of travel is undoubtedly positive.
The UK IPO pipeline continues to build with larger and more sponsor-backed assets than we have seen in recent years, and we expect activity to kick off in Q2. There is more to the pipeline than that, and we are also speaking to a number of small/mid cap companies considering listing. Europe has started the year much quicker, and we have already seen c.€4.0bn of issuance there, the fastest start since 1995. This was principally focussed on the €3.8bn CSG defence IPO in Amsterdam. That deal had a few interesting characteristics to navigate the uncertain backdrop: cornerstones for c.25% of the deal, a fixed price offering and a 3-day bookbuild period (vs. the typical 6/7 day period). We’re expecting those strategies to be used by other issuers as they navigate a potentially volatile geopolitical backdrop. Importantly, the deal has traded up c.30% and made investors positive returns for the first big European IPO of the year. Elsewhere, Asta Energy priced its €190m IPO in Germany this am and is currently +40%. We expect this all to be a positive lead indicator and help sentiment for the UK pipeline.
The domestic UK equity fund outflows continue (54 of the past 55 months have seen outflows) but there is clear evidence of availability of capital for the right deals (we did the first UK primary raise of ’26 >£100m this week for Atalaya Mining Copper which was well-received) and constructive tone around ECM/IPOs generally with investors. We have also seen international interest pick up materially in the UK (helped by the UK equity market outperformance in recent months), both in terms of deal participation and general engagement on our sales desk and company roadshows we are organising.
What are the risks to all of this? The geopolitical backdrop remains uncertain although, as mentioned above, European issuers are currently managing this through different deal strategies. There are a couple of very notable deals that the market is particularly focussed on and how they trade will be very important for setting the tone for those issuers that follow. We also have some way to go until many of these UK IPOs launch, and trading in certain sectors has been mixed recently despite broader markets touching all-time highs again. But, generally speaking, the set-up for the pipeline is currently constructive and we expect the current positive trajectory for UK IPOs to continue.
