This note is the second quarterly report, “House Rules”, looking at the UK housing market which covers all the listed housebuilders and estate agents.
In short the analysts remain positive about the outlook for the Housebuilders. The traditional estate agents are faced with low market volumes and a structural shift towards different formats.
The much anticipated Housing White paper turned out to be a non-event with little really new or material in it, albeit what was there was supportive for new housebuilders. Big questions still remain about Help-to-Buy (HTB) and what the Government will do about extending this beyond 2021. While this may seem some way off still, certainty further out makes a big difference when it comes to large site purchases and forecasting sales rates and, consequently, the site cash flow and returns.
Will the election have any impact? Traditionally, general elections result in a slightly cooler housing market in the 3-4 weeks before the event, with a pick up in activity afterwards. However, given the level of uncertainty already created by Brexit, the analysts suspect that the election impact will be more muted than usual this time around.
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